factual

Past Futurism Was Unserious, Not Impossible

Historical failures to predict the future may reflect that past attempts were deeply unserious rather than that the future was genuinely unknowable; people in the 70s arguably could have reasoned that rising population and continual resource innovation would continue, so we should not become defeatist from past errors, and modern prediction methods have likely improved.

factualpending

Speaker

Holden Karnofsky

Evidence Quote

I think it's hard to know if there was really no way to know or if they just weren't trying very hard.

Source

Holden Karnofsky — History's most important centuryDwarkesh Patel Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:35:22 AM

My Notes

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