The late-stage boom cycle in US markets will peak sometime between Q3 2024 and Q1 2025, followed by a bear market with 30-50% decline driven by both valuation contraction and recession, not valuation alone.
forecastpending
Speaker
Felix ZulaufEvidence Quote
“I think we are enjoying the later part of the up cycle and uh hooray could go on into anywhere from third quarter of this year to first quarter of next year. That's where I see the equity markets to top out and then a down cycle and the down cycle will be not uh 20% it will be somewhere between 30 and 50% and the recession. It will not be a bear market based on no recession just valuation but it will be a bear market based on recession and valuation contraction.”
Created: 8/12/2026, 6:25:56 PM
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