Research after Schiller's 10-year CAPE showed that 5-year, 6-year, and 8-year cyclically-adjusted PE ratios have roughly the same ~40% correlation to future returns as the 10-year version, suggesting the exact averaging period matters less than previously thought.

factualpending

Speaker

Larry Swedroe

Evidence Quote

long cycle research after that looked at 5 six8 all are about the same they will have about a 40% correlation to Future uh returns

Source

Investors Made These 9 Costly Mistakes in 2024 | Larry Swedroe Explains How to Fix ThemExcess Returns
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:39:47 AM

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