Nuclear weapons would eventually have been discovered even without the Manhattan Project because the knowledge that uranium possesses enormous energy and undergoes radioactivity was already established by 1944, and this knowledge spreads over time.

forecastpending

Speaker

David Deutsch

Evidence Quote

by the time we get to 2023 the secret that this is possible would have got out by now

Source

David Deutsch & Steven Pinker (First Ever Public Dialogue) — AGI, P(Doom), & The Enemies of ProgressJoseph Noel Walker
Created: 8/12/2026, 10:21:48 PM

My Notes

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