Russian Weakness, Not Strength, Brings Nukes

It is Russian weakness, not aggression, that brings nuclear war into play: Russia's army fights as a mob with weapons having lost combined-arms competence, so if it reaches Poland and faces NATO the casualty ratios will be obscene, yet it must still reach the Vistula, so it would attempt a short brutal negotiation to break NATO and, failing that, launch strategic nukes because without securing these positions the Russian state ceases to function within ~15 years.