The dollar index is likely to remain in a range between 98.5 and 100 and will not reach 110 unless the Federal Reserve massively cuts rates and triggers huge financial flows into treasuries when hedging costs make treasuries attractive relative to Japanese and European bonds, which would require both Fed course change and significant capital flows from trade agreements, a scenario more likely in 2026.

forecastpending

Speaker

Daniel Lay

Evidence Quote

It's likely to remain between the 98.5 to the 100 level. I don't think it's going to go up massively unless the Federal Reserve starts to massively cut rates [31:58]

Source

MacroVoices #492 Daniel Lacalle: The End of American Exceptionalism?Macro Voices
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:39:51 AM

My Notes

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