Ukraine has outperformed expectations while Russia has underperformed, but Ukraine is limited by its own population and weapons inflow, making victory unlikely if Russia achieves general mobilization and moves from 200,000 to 2 million troops in theater.
forecastpending
Speaker
Peter ZeihanEvidence Quote
“The Ukrainians have definitely outperformed and the Russians have absolutely underperformed. Um, we saw a policy change in most of the Western capitals at the start of the third week of the war when it became apparent that the Ukrainians actually might be able to hang in there. Everyone was kind of preparing for what would it mean when the Russians were on NATO's border, the entire frontier. Uh, this is going to sound a little depressing, but they're doing everything they can right now.”
Created: 8/10/2026, 10:51:07 PM
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