By cyclical measures the US economy is about 65-70% through the current economic cycle, while politically it is in the classic first-hundred-day honeymoon euphoria of a new administration, and current asset prices in the US are expensive relative to other countries, implying a 'hurdle rate' handicap that makes future US outperformance harder.

forecastpending

Speaker

Ray Dalio

Evidence Quote

there's a hurdle rate you always have to keep in mind like it's a horse race you have to bet on that you have to keep in mind the handicap

Source

Ray Dalio on AI, Job Loss & the Future of the Economy | EP #148Peter H. Diamandis
Created: 6/18/2026, 1:59:18 PM

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