Valuations measured by current P/E or Shiller CAPE 10 ratios show only ~0.4 correlation with future 10-year returns, meaning valuations have nearly zero predictive power for one-year returns and cannot be used to time markets even over decades.

factualpending

Speaker

Larry Swedroe

Evidence Quote

“the correlations of virt zero so you cannot use them to time markets uh even at 10 years”

Source

Investors Made These 9 Costly Mistakes in 2024 | Larry Swedroe Explains How to Fix Them— Excess Returns
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:39:47 AM

My Notes

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