In the St. Petersburg game, two exponentials interact: payout grows exponentially (2^n dollars) while probability of that outcome shrinks exponentially (probability = 1/2^n), and when you combine these and eliminate the exponent n, you get a power law where probability of payout x equals x^-1.
causalpending
Speaker
Derek MullerEvidence Quote
“If you look at the payout x, you can see it grows exponentially with each toss of the coin, x equals two to the n. But if you look at the probability of tossing the coin that many times to get a heads, you can see that this probability shrinks exponentially”
Created: 8/11/2026, 6:45:34 AM
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