Most expert forecasts and aggregate prediction markets (Metaculus) have been consistently too pessimistic about AI progress timelines, with Metaculus moving from 2050 in 2020 to 2040 in 2022 to 2030 currently, while expert surveys like Katja Grace's have predicted timelines that were already beaten by the time the surveys were published.
factualpending
Speaker
Scott AlexanderEvidence Quote
“When I have seen people predicting AI milestones like Katja Grace's expert surveys, they have almost always been too pessimistic from a point of view of how fast AI will advance.”
Source
AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo— Dwarkesh PatelCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:03:29 AM
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