When unemployment rate bottoms and starts rising, and Fed cuts rates, that pattern has historically preceded recessions in 2000, 2008, and is repeating now in 2025; meaning markets ignoring this is unusual
factualpending
Speaker
John LodraEvidence Quote
“when the unemployment rate bottoms out and starts increasing again, it tends to then spike up into the next recession...when the Fed has been on a hiking regime, plateaus and then starts cutting rates, that also is when usually the next recession starts”
Source
Can The Stock Market Bubble Continue Into 2026? | Sven Henrich— Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®Created: 8/11/2026, 7:20:41 AM
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