NIH grant review panels show a modest-to-nonexistent correlation between expert scores (on a 10-90 scale) and eventual research impact measured by citation counts, demonstrating that the expert gatekeepers overseeing $40 billion in annual research funding cannot actually predict which research will be influential.
factualpending
Speaker
Malcolm GladwellEvidence Quote
“he discovers that the correlation between your score and how good your research ends up being is modest to non-existence...we're talking about 40 billion dollars...discovers oh the experts who are Manning...don't actually know what they're doing”
Created: 8/13/2026, 7:47:10 AM
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