forecast
AI lie detection likely feasible via replay
AI lie detectors are more likely than not to succeed because, even without understanding the model's internals, you can rewind it arbitrarily, make a million copies, and run gradient descent over them — making it pretty hard for an AI or brain emulation to lie successfully, unless it was specifically and aggressively selected over many generations to be excellent at lying.
forecastpending
Speaker
Paul ChristianoEvidence Quote
“unless they were aggressively selected. If it's just they are trying to lie well rather than it's like they were selected over many generations to be excellent at lying or something, then your ML system hopefully didn't train it a bunch to lie.”
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:36:05 AM
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