Credit indicators beyond the yield curve—specifically the excess bond premium (proxy for credit risk in corporate markets)—may be better recession indicators than the yield curve, and looking at overall slope of financial conditions across multiple indicators (not just one) is important.
normativepending
Speaker
Neil DuttaEvidence Quote
“there's been a lot of research out of the FED that talks about you know things like the EXS Bond uh premium right I mean this is basically appr proxy for credit for risk in the corporate credit Market and you know they've talked about how that might be a better recession indicator than say the yield curve”
Created: 8/12/2026, 6:02:32 PM
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