For a cap-weighted index investor, returns will likely be muted over the long term because the top seven companies cannot sustain their historical growth rates or margin expansion indefinitely, and as growth slows and/or margins compress, Mr. Market will re-rate multiples downward from the current 35x to lower levels, destroying the compression returns that have dominated the past 13-15 years.
forecastpending
Speaker
Chris SemperEvidence Quote
“returns are likely muted for a US capitated investor owning the S&P... can't grow as fast... can't continue to expand margins... take it out of the multiple.”
Source
We Asked Chris Bloomstran Why He Won’t Own the S&P 500 At These Levels — And What He Does Instead— Excess ReturnsCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:13:17 PM
My Notes
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