Domodaran valued Apple in March 2013 with a base case of $580, when the stock was trading at $450, and used Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 draws to assess uncertainty rather than a single point estimate, finding a 90% probability that Apple was undervalued based on the distribution of outcomes rather than just the central estimate

normativepending

Speaker

Aswath Domodaran

Evidence Quote

The stock price was $450. In my base case valuation, I got about $580... I can give you an expected value, like I did before. I can also tell you, if you pay $450, what the chance you are wrong upfront is.

Source

Valuation in Four Lessons | Aswath Damodaran | Talks at GoogleTalks at Google
Created: 8/11/2026, 1:45:13 AM

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