Subjective probabilities assigned to single unique events with high uncertainty, such as 'what is your P(AI Doom)', are often meaningless when experts are profoundly ignorant about the underlying mechanisms and cannot appeal to intersubjective utility comparisons or physical randomness to ground the probability.

definitionpending

Speaker

David Deutsch

Evidence Quote

trying to quantify them with a number um doesn't really um do anything

Source

David Deutsch & Steven Pinker (First Ever Public Dialogue) — AGI, P(Doom), & The Enemies of ProgressJoseph Noel Walker
Created: 8/12/2026, 10:21:48 PM

My Notes

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