Gavk's analytical framework divides all economic scenarios into four quadrants: (1) deflationary boom (capitalism's natural state—entrepreneurs always try to do more with less), (2) inflationary boom (democracy's natural state—politicians always try to promise more without paying for it), (3) inflationary bust (energy price spikes), and (4) deflationary bust (when banks overlever and credit collapses). Asset allocation should be based on which scenario you believe is least likely, then eliminate exposure to that scenario.