The farther into the future we look, the less certain we should be that the current technical paradigm (large language models) will remain the dominant AGI paradigm, and it would be surprising if in 10 years LLMs remain the technology being discussed if AGI arrives and succeeds, requiring policy flexibility regarding technical specifics while maintaining assumptions about enduring factors like compute's importance.
forecastpending
Speaker
Jeff AlstottEvidence Quote
“So I will be very surprised if in 10 years, we're talking about large language models, right? So conditioning on AGI arriving then and not in a couple years, it could be that there is pretty significantly different technical considerations at play.”
Source
Artificial General Intelligence's Five Hard National Security Problems— The Berkman Klein Center for Internet & SocietyCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:41:23 AM
My Notes
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