When 10,000 people make market forecasts over a 3-6 month period, some will necessarily be correct due to pure randomness, but this success is attributed to forecasting skill rather than statistical inevitability.
causalpending
Speaker
Robert HagstromEvidence Quote
“somebody's going to if you got 10,000 people telling you what's going to happen... some of them are going to be correct out of randomness”
Source
Warren Buffett Published His Whole Playbook | Robert Hagstrom on Why Only One Tenth of 1% Uses It— Excess ReturnsCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:12:15 PM
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