A trade war with China and resulting recession would slow AI progress by making compute approximately 30% more expensive, potentially reducing overall research velocity by 15% and delaying key milestones by a few months, but would not fundamentally alter the basic trajectory of the scenario.
forecastpending
Speaker
Daniel CocatelloEvidence Quote
“Well, if the trade war continues and causes a recession and stuff like that, it might uh just generally slow the pace of AI progress, but not by much. I think like say it makes compute 30% more expensive so that the companies are able to buy 30% less of it. Um maybe that would translate to like a 15% reduction in overall research velocity”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:28:11 AM
My Notes
Loading notes...