factual
Food production estimated by circular FAO proxy
Because statistical offices lack data on domestic food production, in the 1960s they estimated it by taking the FAO's per-capita estimate for a country in their income bracket and multiplying it by their estimate of rural population and population growth—effectively assuming the answer (income) to derive food consumption, then adding it to another poorly-estimated quantity (population).
factualpending
Speaker
Morten JervenEvidence Quote
“Typically, what statistical offices did in the 1960s when they started to aggregate these estimates was to rely on advice from the Food and Agricultural Organization in Rome, FAO, about what will be the reasonable per capita estimate for a country in their income bracket and then simply multiply that with their estimate of the rural population and population growth.”
Created: 6/13/2026, 12:25:58 AM
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