If one claims any number other than 0 or 1 for a subjective probability of catastrophe, one has already lost the debate because critics will say the number is too high, which allows them to demand unlimited preventative action (since the disutility of extinction is infinite, any finite probability multiplied by infinite disutility justifies any cost).

causalpending

Speaker

David Deutsch

Evidence Quote

the disutility is infinite the utility is infinitely negative so... you're arguing about the content of the other person's brain

Source

David Deutsch & Steven Pinker (First Ever Public Dialogue) — AGI, P(Doom), & The Enemies of ProgressJoseph Noel Walker
Created: 8/12/2026, 10:21:48 PM

My Notes

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