When Grant started his publication in 1983, the Continental Illinois Bank had just failed (first wave of too-big-to-fail), treasury yields were rising toward 14%, and the CPI was printing at 4%+, creating nine percentage points of real yield in long-dated Treasuries—an extraordinary opportunity that the market did not stampede to buy due to the prior 35+ years of rising yields (1946–1981).

factualpending

Speaker

Jim Grant

Evidence Quote

When treasury yields briefly touched 14% in the spring of '84, the CPI was printing at 4% plus but not 14%. There were about nine percentage points of real yield

Source

We Asked Jim Grant What War Means for InflationExcess Returns
Created: 8/12/2026, 10:39:06 PM

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