causal

No Lean Season: scaling failure and premature exit

GiveWell's funding of No Lean Season—a program incentivizing seasonal migration in Bangladesh based on Mobarak's small RCT—failed at scale because the small, hands-on model became harder to deliver through large microfinance institutions, and GiveWell made two mistakes: underestimating the difficulty of scaling and exiting too quickly rather than committing to a longer, iterative timeframe.

causalpending

Speaker

Elie Hassenfeld

Evidence Quote

the better prediction to have made back then would have been: If this is going to work, it's going to be hard. It's going to take some time and some iteration to get the model right at scale.

Source

Elie Hassenfeld on GiveWellEconTalk
Created: 6/13/2026, 12:29:30 AM

My Notes

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