China faces a critical choice similar to Japan's in the early 20th century: Japan misread its geopolitical position and pursued continental expansion despite its maritime island geography, resulting in catastrophic failure; China is 'making some very portentious choices' and it is 'unclear whether china gets it right' either; Payne expresses hope that 'the chinese communist party doesn't end its day' like imperial Japan did, and expresses fear that if 'genocide is the answer' to how China deals with ethnic minorities, 'who knows where we're at'