The Fed's break-even jobs growth number to maintain stable unemployment has fallen dramatically from ~150,000 pre-pandemic estimates to 70-80,000 in late 2024 to perhaps 20-30,000 currently, reflecting immigration's impact on labor supply and changing demographic needs.
factualpending
Speaker
Jason DrahoEvidence Quote
“economists are trying to estimate what this break even number is, like how many jobs does the US economy need to produce every month given demographics, given immigration to keep the unemployment rate steady. You know, before it was like 150,000. Late last year like maybe 70 to 80,000. Now it's like, well, maybe it's 20 or 30.”
Created: 8/12/2026, 10:36:49 PM
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