factual

Breakthroughs are obvious only in hindsight

Major advances in deep learning often consist of realizing something had a desirable property all along, so they straddle the line between breakthrough and mere implementation; the deepest advance — that a big neural network trained with backpropagation can do a lot — was a giant conceptual breakthrough precisely because for the longest time people didn't see it, even though in hindsight everyone calls it obvious.

factualpending

Speaker

Ilya Sutskever

Evidence Quote

in hindsight, it will not feel like a breakthrough. Everybody's gonna say — Oh, well, of course.

Source

Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligenceDwarkesh Patel Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:26:51 AM

My Notes

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