factual
Breakthroughs are obvious only in hindsight
Major advances in deep learning often consist of realizing something had a desirable property all along, so they straddle the line between breakthrough and mere implementation; the deepest advance — that a big neural network trained with backpropagation can do a lot — was a giant conceptual breakthrough precisely because for the longest time people didn't see it, even though in hindsight everyone calls it obvious.
factualpending
Speaker
Ilya SutskeverEvidence Quote
“in hindsight, it will not feel like a breakthrough. Everybody's gonna say — Oh, well, of course.”
Source
Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence— Dwarkesh Patel PodcastCreated: 6/13/2026, 3:26:51 AM
My Notes
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