forecast

Capability extrapolation points to powerful AI by 2026-2027

If you extrapolate the rate at which AI capabilities have increased (from high-school to undergraduate to PhD level across years), and account for added modalities like computer use and image generation, it makes you think powerful AI will arrive by 2026 or 2027, though delays are possible.

forecastpending

Speaker

Dario Amodei

Evidence Quote

If you just kind of eyeball the rate at which these capabilities are increasing, it does make you think that we’ll get there by 2026 or 2027.

Source

Dario AmodeiLex Fridman Podcast
Created: 6/13/2026, 3:36:36 AM

My Notes

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