If you are using a thin-tail probability distribution, you can always be surprised by an outlier with respect to your distribution, but if you are using a fat-tail or extremist model, the reverse cannot be true—nothing can surprise you because a quiet period is entirely within statistical properties and so is a large deviation.
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Nassim Nicholas TalebEvidence Quote
“if I am using a thin tail probability distribution you say I can be always surprised by an out lier MH with respect to my distribution a large deviation... if on the other hand I'm using a large deviation model or model that the extremist stand model the reverse cannot be true nothing can surprise you”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:44:21 AM
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