At the end of 2023, 20 Wall Street analysts predicted S&P 500 returns ranging from -12% to +13% with an average of +2%, but the S&P 500 actually returned +23-25%, making the average forecast off by 21 percentage points—more than double historical average returns.
factualpending
Speaker
Larry SwedroeEvidence Quote
“20 analysts looking at the following year from the leading Wall Street firms predicted anywhere from a down 12% to an up 13 the average was for a gain of two well we know the S&P itself went up 25 uh%”
Source
Investors Made These 9 Costly Mistakes in 2024 | Larry Swedroe Explains How to Fix Them— Excess ReturnsCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:39:47 AM
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