No one cycle is always the same, so there is inherent imprecision in timing lags, meaning calls can be early and positionings can be early, but the typical 7-9 quarter lag provides a reasonable timing window.
factualpending
Speaker
John LodereerEvidence Quote
“no one cycle is always the same so as much as we want to pinpoint you know what is the lag typical lag there's a inherently arranged to that because of the way that Nuys are different every cycle but he said pretty robustly that typically you see about a seven to nine quarter lag between a financial cycle peaking and the business cycle peaking”
Created: 8/12/2026, 6:42:20 PM
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