In power-law/extreme-stan domains, luck plays a much bigger role than skill, because there are outcomes that are much more explained by variance than by drift. Hard work gets you a nice car, house, or watch in a Gaussian world, but to get a private jet or island you need hard work PLUS substantial luck—the variance dominates the deterministic component.
causalpending
Speaker
Nassim TalebEvidence Quote
“to have a private jet a private island all that you need the same amount of hard work plus a lot of luck so because there's there's some outcome that can be much more explained by variance than by uh what we call the drift”
Source
The Merge: Ep. 03 | The past is not gone; it lives on in the future— Maroun Semaan Faculty of Engineering and ArchitectCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:38:57 AM
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