For Gaussian distributions, the expected deviation above any threshold k-sigma shrinks as k increases (e.g., above 3-sigma is ~0.8 sigma, above 5-sigma is ~5.1 sigma), whereas for extremist distributions, the expected deviation stays proportionally constant and explosively scales in absolute terms, meaning old-age expectations become nonsensical in power-law domains.

factualpending

Speaker

Nassim Taleb

Evidence Quote

what's the expected company higher than uh was 10 million in sales 15 milon million 100 million sales 150 million the average uh two billion in sales 3 billion

Source

Nassim Taleb — Meditations on ExtremistanJoseph Noel Walker
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:35:40 AM

My Notes

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