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Black swans defined as unpredictable tail events cannot be predicted, but the question is whether a black swan can be confirmed or detected in real time; using oil's crash to negative prices as an example, could ML have detected the black swan approaching before it fully occurred.

normativepending

Speaker

Evidence Quote

“But can a black swan be confirmed?... was there a point in that series of oil on its way to going negative where there could be some machine learning algorithm”

Source

Surviving the Meme Stock Bubble | Cliff Asness— Infinite Loops

Created: 8/12/2026, 5:59:18 PM

My Notes

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Black swans defined as unpredictable tail events cannot be predicted, but the question is whether a black swan can be *confirmed* or detected in real time; using oil's crash to negative prices as an example, could ML have detected the black swan approaching before it fully occurred.

Speaker

Evidence Quote

Source

My Notes

Black swans defined as unpredictable tail events cannot be predicted, but the question is whether a black swan can be confirmed or detected in real time; using oil's crash to negative prices as an example, could ML have detected the black swan approaching before it fully occurred.