When people shout out their guesses publicly rather than submitting them individually, the guesses become dependent (anchored by the first answer) and the average no longer converges to the true value but clusters around a biased amount.
causalpending
Speaker
CasperEvidence Quote
“their guesses have become dependent. And now the average doesn't converge to the true value, but instead it clusters around a higher amount”
Created: 6/18/2026, 1:59:31 PM
My Notes
Loading notes...