Starting valuation determines long-run returns: in 1949 US equities were extraordinarily cheap (Shiller PE below 10, dividend yield near 10%, with profits depressed by wartime excess-profits tax), allowing equities to do well under repression, whereas today the S&P 500 starts at excessively high valuations, so the same repression will produce very different outcomes.
causalpending
Speaker
Russell NapierEvidence Quote
“where you start matters. And now we're starting with excessively high valuations and not excessively low valuations.”
Created: 6/18/2026, 1:59:14 PM
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