The Schiller CAPE ratio (cyclically adjusted P/E) exceeding 35 has historically predicted negative buy-and-hold returns on 1, 3, 7, and 10-year forward bases; current valuation is well above 35 and indicates poor expected forward returns regardless of near-term price action

factualpending

Speaker

John Lodra

Evidence Quote

if if you look at any time that Schiller Cape... exceeded 35, every single time... the market was was was down

Source

Can The Stock Market Bubble Continue Into 2026? | Sven HenrichAdam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:14:09 AM

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