The yield curve inversion correctly predicted recession but observers misunderstand the timing mechanism: there is a 15-month lag between yield curve inversion signal and actual recession onset, which is why recession hasn't materialized despite the inversion signal
factualpending
Speaker
Tom McLellanEvidence Quote
“that we were promised a recession and it hasn't shown up yet well it wasn't supposed to you got to wait for the 15-month lag time to go by”
Source
Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Stephanie Pomboy, Michael Pento + A Dozen Other Experts— Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®Created: 8/10/2026, 9:21:51 PM
My Notes
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