Using the five-problem framework, incentives for cooperation and competition can be mapped: problems 1 (wonder weapon) and 2 (systemic power shift) have misaligned incentives favoring competition; problems 3 (WMD proliferation) and 4 (loss of control) have aligned incentives for U.S.-China cooperation; problem 5 (instability) has aligned incentives for maintaining some stability.
factualpending
Speaker
Joel PreddEvidence Quote
“So in the first problem, the race to a wonder weapon, it seems inherently competitive. And so one of the things we have to really worry about is whether the uncertain but credible prospect that a wonder weapon could emerge... Now, interestingly, the third and fourth problem, I think that there are incentives that exist for the United States and China to be aligned for cooperation.”
Source
Artificial General Intelligence's Five Hard National Security Problems— The Berkman Klein Center for Internet & SocietyCreated: 8/11/2026, 7:41:23 AM
My Notes
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