China has pursued semiconductor self-sufficiency for 25-30 years, and export controls would not represent anything new but merely an intensification of ongoing efforts that China has doubled down on several times already with diminishing returns, so the medium-term likely outcome is that if allies and partners (Taiwan, Japan, Korea, and Europeans) cooperate with U.S. export controls, China will fail to reach its goals in advanced semiconductor manufacturing nodes.
forecastpending
Speaker
Glenn TiffertEvidence Quote
“China's actually been doing just that and has committed to doing just that for the last well 25 to 30 years and so this would not be anything new for them...so I think very likely what's going to happen in the medium term is assuming that our allies and partners not just Taiwan Japan and Korea but also the Europeans...cooperate with the United States it's very unlikely that China will reach its goals in the advanced nodes of semiconductor and integrated circuit manufacturing”
Created: 8/10/2026, 11:07:41 PM
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