factual

Arrhenius Made Accurate CO2 Warming Prediction in 1896

In 1896 Svante Arrhenius identified the three key factors needed to forecast CO2-driven warming—that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, that a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor which amplifies warming, and that added CO2 gradually partitions so about 80% ends up in the oceans—and used them to make a back-of-the-envelope calculation of warming from doubling CO2 that, while not exact, was remarkably close, demonstrating the deep and durable foundation of climate science.

factualpending

Speaker

Chris Field

Evidence Quote

with those three things he was able to make a back of the envelope calculation of how much warming we'd expect with a doubling of carbon dioxide he didn't get exactly the right answer but it was pretty darn close

Source

333 - Sanity Check On Climate ChangeMaking Sense with Sam Harris
Created: 6/14/2026, 2:17:57 AM

My Notes

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