Excess liquidity, measured as real money growth minus economic growth, provides a 3-to-6 month leading indicator of equity performance, and this measure began declining sharply in January 2025, removing the safety net that supported the 2023-2024 rally.
factualpending
Speaker
Simon WhiteEvidence Quote
“excess liquidity has a very good lead of about 3 to six months with equities...at the beginning of this year...mid January you really start to see a kind fairly sharp decline in excess liquidity [25:31]”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:06:30 AM
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