In prediction markets, David found a coin-flip bet on the 2024 US election (Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump) shortly before election day when Harris hadn't even been the candidate for long and had only a couple months to prepare, which he viewed as properly priced at even odds despite surface-level political momentum.
factualpending
Speaker
DavidEvidence Quote
“Camala Harris wasn't even the candidate and she had like only a couple months to even prepare... it's basically right near a coin flip right before election day.”
Source
This Ex-Poker Pro Built a Hedge Fund by Betting Against Beta – David Orr on Asymmetric Bets— Odds on OpenCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:42:53 PM
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