We will not see continual learning announced as fully solved in a single livestream; because labs are incentivized to release innovations quickly, we'll see a broken early version of continual learning (test time training) before something that truly learns like a human, giving lots of heads up before the bottleneck is fully solved.

forecastpending

Speaker

Dwarkesh Patel

Evidence Quote

I expect to get lots of heads up before this big bottleneck is totally solved.

Source

Why I don’t think AGI is right around the cornerDwarkesh Patel
Created: 6/13/2026, 7:00:29 PM

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