Brian Arthur's 'El Farol Problem' demonstrates that as soon as you solve a prediction problem (find an exploitable pattern in market behavior), everyone learns it, changes their behavior in response, and the pattern ceases to exist.
definitionpending
Speaker
Robert HagstromEvidence Quote
“as soon as you come up with a predictive value or some prediction... everybody knows that variable and so then they start gaming that too”
Source
Warren Buffett Published His Whole Playbook | Robert Hagstrom on Why Only One Tenth of 1% Uses It— Excess ReturnsCreated: 8/12/2026, 6:12:15 PM
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