Break-even spreads on the front of the curve have elevated due to headline inflation from oil prices, but further-out curve break-evens (10-year, 30-year) haven't risen meaningfully, indicating the market views this as a temporary supply shock, not a fundamental inflation regime change.
factualpending
Speaker
Jeffrey ShermanEvidence Quote
“you've seen the elevation on the front of the curve as you'd expect because oil prices tend to dominate short-term inflation moves cuz remember the bond market trades headline. So, it trades the actual CPI. That's that's what's into the the TIPS market. And so, but you haven't really seen that respond further out the curve.”
Created: 8/12/2026, 10:36:49 PM
My Notes
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