Using historical war data from Goldman Sachs, markets do not have a consistent 6-month post-war return pattern; some wars see 10%+ gains in the following 6 months, others see 15%+ losses, and the distribution is wide; averaging across wars is misleading because individual wars have highly heterogeneous outcomes.
factualpending
Speaker
John LoadraEvidence Quote
“Sometimes markets are way higher six months later, sometimes they're way lower...averages can be tremendously misleading and damaging.”
Source
Oil To Collapse To $30/Barrel After Iran War Ends? | Doomberg— Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money®Created: 8/12/2026, 6:44:02 PM
My Notes
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