Superforecasters subselect for events they can forecast, which tend to be inconsequential and small-scale, whereas the consequential events (wars, pandemics) are characterized by scale-free distributions where there is no standard or typical event.
causalpending
Speaker
Nassim Nicholas TalebEvidence Quote
“they subselect events you can forecast because but they have they're inconsequential you see they're very small restricted question they're consequential... there's no such thing as an event like for example will it be a war yes or no I mean there can be a war could kill two people could be a war kill 600,000 people yeah so in extremist that's one thing... there is no such thing as a standard deviation in extremist stand”
Created: 8/11/2026, 7:44:21 AM
My Notes
Loading notes...